Barclays Capital FX Strategy Research via eFX
Barclays Capital FX Strategy Research argues that as data and events continue to dry up over the summer, technical analysis, seasonal factors and positioning may become more important market drivers.
As a result, we have constructed an aggregate score of these drivers across 27 currency pairs to establish where they are most relevant. For technical indicators, we use a Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) as a measure of momentum, along with the moving average convergence/divergence using 50- and 200-day moving averages, as a measure of trendfollowing momentum.
Across the 27 pairs, Barclays finds that technical support is greatest for AUD/USD and as such, Barclays advises trend-following traders to consider long exposure in the pair than in other majors.
