Not my most favourite pair to trade. I tend to build a decent position taking in 2,3 or 400 pips offside and find that it nearly always just stretches my pockets too far (hitting my stops) before steaming into profit a few days later. It’s certainly a pair for testing one’s will sometimes.
I wrote about this pair back in March pointing out the two long term converging lines. At today’s money the range is down to about 160 pips top to bottom and give or take a few pips, we’re bang in the middle.
On the weekly chart the moves up have been capped by the 100ma at 1.0355 and the daily 55ma has been the lid for the second half of April.
The battle for the break is coming down to the decision on rates and when that may happen. The Aussie government continues to make noises about the high Aussie dollar and the rate callers are still singing. This would lend ammunition to the reasoning that the break will be down.
I’m going to watch this pair more closely now and may start building shorts on a break above 1.0350.
As per usual I’ll probably be adding all the way up to 1.0600+ before getting stopped out at 1.07 only to see it crumble.
