January employment report.

At 0030GMT:

  • Employment Change January: expected 15.0K, prior -22.6K
  • Unemployment Rate January: expected 5.9%, prior 5.8%
  • Full Time Employment Change January, prior was -31.6K
  • Part Time Employment Change January, prior was 9.0K
  • Participation Rate January, expected is 64.6,% prior was 64.6%

Note – Labour Force Survey population benchmarks, and the estimates, are revised in this release today (i.e changes have been made to the population base for today’s survey). The result today is therefore going to be a bit more of a lottery than normal.

What’s the AUD gonna do?

This is pretty straightforward …

A beat in employment headline (the “Employment Change”) will see the AUD rise, a miss will see it fall (but, read on …)

Immediately after looking at the Employment Change attention will turn to the change in full-time and part-time numbers; and again its pretty straightforward … if there is a beat but it comes mainly in the form of part-time employment then any AUD gain is going to be tempered.

The unemployment rate will come in for attention, but its going to read in conjunction with the participation rate. A rise in unemployment coupled with a fall in the participation rate will see a bearish take on the AUD.

There are other combinations and permutations for the 5 pieces of headline data … of course

AND … don’t forget we are also getting some words of wisdom from the RBA today, at 12.25 pm AEDT (0125GMT)