This is not a preview of the Q2 house price data, just a heads up on what is interesting about house price developments in Australia at present
Oh, and first things first, the data is not likely to be too much of an AUD mover
- For one thing, its house prices …
- For another, we get monthly data on house prices so this quarterly data point is a bit of old news
Still, if we get some sort of shock result there can be impact.
I posted in the calendar post, here on the impact of declining house prices, here is ANZ with more detail (this is my summary of a longer piece):
- key downside risk we are all focused on is housing
- Our forecasts incorporate a downturn in housing construction from 2019
- we are also expecting a slowdown in household consumption
- our numbers project broad stability in the household saving rate
- If we think about the impact that the house price falls to date have had on households then there doesn't seem to be much to worry about. House prices have been falling for 12 months at the national level, yet consumer confidence is higher than it was a year ago and household consumption has actually picked up.
Data is at 0130GMT, and at the same time we get
