A Morgan Stanley report says Australia's housing boom has peaked
MS cites:
- Tightened lending standards have cooled the market (many lenders have hiked interest rates for investors and made it harder for them to get loans while cutting rates for owner occupiers )
- Lower net in-bound migration
"We are now calling the peak in the housing cycle, and expect further falls in auction clearance rates and house price momentum, with a negative impact on construction occurring over 2016"
"We believe recession risks are elevated as regulators attempt a difficult soft landing of the housing market amidst external and income challenges"
Morgan Stanley says argues fiscal stimulus is necessary
- Predicts new prime minister Malcolm Turnbull may use the mid-year economic forecast in December as a mini-budget
- (Note Turnbull on Monday said it was not something he had considered)
Says the RBA will need to cut rates by another 50 basis points by mid-2016
- MS predicts unemployment will rise to 6.8% (from 6.2 now)
- Says growth will likely miss forecasts
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That's it in summary, but there is more from Business Spectator, here
