In the Australian Financial Review late Wednesday (Australia time):

  • The fate Australia's AAA credit rating could be known before Christmas
  • Government due to release its mid-year budget update at midday on Monday
  • Spokesmen for both Moody's and S&P Global Ratings said if there was a clear case for either downgrading the coveted rating or leaving it as is, then that could be made fairly quickly. If not on Monday, then in the few days before Christmas.
  • "If it's in line with our expectations we could determine whether there should be any change or not," said a Moody's spokesman.

AFR article is here, may be gated


The Australian government's Mid-year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) is due December 19, that's the "mid-year budget update at midday on Monday" referred to

  • Says Adam Boynton, chief economist for Deutsche Bank Australia:
  • Says Treasury has over-estimated its forecasts for nominal GDP growth, which is a more accurate gauge of revenue growth than real GDP.
  • He says even a minor shortfall in Treasury's medium-term assumption that nominal GDP will average 5 per cent a year will mean "the federal budget - on current settings - never makes it back into surplus".