Australia - RBA minutes (Dec. meeting) due today - this is not a preview

OK, I am telling a bit of a porky-pie .... here is the preview from ANZ:

• The RBA minutes are likely to be a non-event

Umm, what else is new? ;-)

OK .... if you've read this far, here is something more from ANZ ... outlook for the RBA into next year (bolding mine):

• We think the mix of 3% growth and a declining unemployment rate will see the RBA modestly tighten policy in 2018, taking the real cash rate back to around zero from its current negative level, but only if it thinks doing so won't risk the growth outlook.
• In our view the key to this is wages. If wage growth is picking up, even modestly, then we think the RBA will be sufficiently confident about the robustness of the outlook to lift the cash rate in 2018.
• This means the Q4 WPI data published on 21 February is critical for our view on the RBA. If it confirms the slowdown in wage growth suggested by the Q3 WPI then it is difficult to see the RBA tightening in 2018. If, however, the WPI picks up we think it will be safe to conclude that wage growth is starting to move higher - if only slowly. This keeps the RBA on track to tighten in 2018, in our view.

How much tightening from the Bank are ANZ expecting?

• We think the RBA will hike by 50bp in 2018, as long as it is confident that wage growth is picking up. This makes the Q4 WPI data in February central to our outlook for the RBA in 2018.