A preview of April to June economic growth data from Australia today (Wednesday 5 September 2018)

  • Due at 0130GMT
  • expected 0.7% q/q, prior 1.0%
  • expected 2.9% q/q, prior 3.1%

RBC have jacked up their forecast:

  • We revise up our AU Q2 GDP to 0.8%
  • for the y/y, RBC at 2.9%

RBC were at 0.7 and 2.8

RBC cite:

  • Supportive final GDP partials
  • Net exports will contribute 0.1pp to Q2 GDP
  • government consumption ... contributing 0.2pp to growth
  • inventories were slightly firmer

More:

  • national accounts are likely to confirm above-trend growth in H1
  • some resilience in household consumption and residential construction in Q2
  • ongoing government spending
  • some softness in private investment
  • A print in line with our forecast will be a little above the RBA's own forecast and likely to remain consistent with its long-held narrative for a return to above-trend growth, stronger labour market, and eventual lift in wages and inflation.
  • given the degree of slack in the economy, AU needs several years of above-trend growth and above-average employment to absorb spare capacity and lift wages and inflation on a sustained basis. The international experience suggests that this will be challenging even when AU hits full employment. … RBA is likely to remain sidelined for some time. Increasing uncertainty over the outlook for global growth adds to the case to be patient.

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For the AUD, a better result should be a positive input for it, but do note that data is old, we are already more than half way through Q3. markets will tend to focus on more recent developments and changes. Greg posted on how the AUD is performing (pretty poorly):

Any pop in the AUD on the data will be met with awaiting sellers

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Some earlier previews: