I posted the median consensus expectation for economic growth in the January to March quarter earlier, but ICYMI:
- expected -0.4% q/q, prior +0.5%
- expected 1.4% y/y, prior 2.2%
And also, a preview of what to expect posted yesterday:
Bottom line is to expect a minus number for the q/q result, the risk is to the downside.
- Would be the first q/q fall since Q1 201
- Q2 will be much, much worse
There is no mystery here, the response to the coronavirus outbreak heavily weighed on activity at the end of Q1 and into Q2. And, don't forget, the OZ economy was tending weak going into Q1 (private-sector demand over the past year has been sluggish indeed - think very slow wage and price growth).
Oh, you'll see plenty of 'recession' headlines soon enough. The commonly accepted definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative q/q GDP. There are PLENTY (never ending) arguments about if this is a good definition or not, there are plenty of other competing definitions, and many convincing arguments about whay others are better.
But the "2*negative" is the commonly used one. Feel free to input any ideas you have in the comments but I'm over it and won't be joining in :-D
