Its all about the exports data, innit?
Yesterday we got the BoP data, and as part of those we got the exports contribution to GDP
It came in higher than was expected and it saw a scramble to revise expectations for today's GDP release higher. I posted on the first few revision that had come through, here: Australia Q1 GDP coming up Wednesday - revised estimates
So, I'm just gonna update that post now as more revisions have come through.
What I have done is look at the forecasts dated June 31 or later (which should cover forecasts made after yesterday's BoP data. And disregarding those forecasts made prior to the 31st).
This is isn't perfect (if you want perfection, buy a toaster. No wait, I think that's a guarantee. Oh well, onwards ...). For example, some analysts may not think yesterday's data warrants an update to their forecast, and thus what I've done here won't reflect that situation.
A simple mean of q/q forecast now is 0.88%. (Just for fun I have averaged, simple mean, the un-updated forecasts, they've come in at 0.55%)
So, no surprises that forecasts are now higher. Just something that has ooccurred to me though ... Yesterday's sharply higher AUD response to the export number was a short market caught by better than expected data. There is some danger now that if the GDP print disappoints (exports are only one component, after all, there is room for other components to disappoint) AUD could drop quite briskly, especially now as a good few shorts were taken out yesterday.
Just something to consider.
