OK, gotta make an admission first ... something that always gives me a giggle.

It goes along the lines, something like this ...

"The next recession in Australia is coming! We are getting closer"

Uhhh, yeah. D'uh.

As long as time's arrow continues to point in the same direction we are getting closer, no doubt. LOL

(ps. Here's a handy guide to forecast anything, and let everyone know how good you are at it:

You're welcome)

But, as usual,I digress ....

When will the next Australian recession be?

This is from JCP (via the Australian Financial Review ... scroll down the page for this piece). Bolding is mine:

  • Australian recession ... now is the time to think about triggers ...
  • One proposed by the analysts at JCP, is a negative change in credit outstanding
  • Since 1976 the only occasion that growth in total private sector credit outstanding has gone negative for more than two quarters (rolling monthly) was 1991 ... coincided with our last recession
  • JCP projects that while the RBA will cut the cash rate once more to 1.75 per cent, it will begin a slow normalisation process in 2017 with the cash rate peaking at a modest 3.75 per cent in 2022. This will precipitate overdue and sustained household deleveraging that will force a protracted contraction in credit outstanding for a five-year period