GBP sitting under Brexit's shade
Trading the GBP at the moment is a bit like herding cats. Not easy at the best of times. Yesterday's headline sent the GBPUSD on a 80+ point round trip when Dominic Raab stated that he expected a Brexit deal by 21 November. When it turned out the letter was a week old and signified pretty much nothing the gains were given up. So, now we head into a Bank of England rate statement today. The likelihood of their being anything but a 0-0-9 vote for holding rates seems remote. All eyes are firmly on Brexit negotiations. However, for a quick run down on the likely outcome have a quick look at ING markets take of the event, here.
One helpful infographic they have is the fact that the number of rate hikes likely to be coming from the Bank of England has been reduced recently. This is reflecting the drawn out nature of the negotiations and the problems that Ireland's border is posing.
One thing to watch from the meeting is whether Carney starts getting specific on any Brexit risk. As the risk of a no-deal increases businesses are going to become increasingly nervous. All this is going to weigh further on the GBP.
Personally, I am expecting a non-event and still think that the best way of trading the GBP at the moment is to keep your ears open to the squawk for any significant news. Eventually that news is going to come and when it does the GBP will run on for a couple of days at least. So, even if you miss the squawk, you can join the run later on.
