Some commentary and forecasts from Barclays re USD and euro

  • The bank expect a more or less flat EUR/USD the next quarter ahead
  • To move towards 1.08 by Q2 2020, were previously looking for 1.06
  • and lows of 1.08 (previously 1.06) in Q2 2020.


  • expect the Fed to ease in the face of persistently low inflation, sizeable external risks and a moderation of US growth,
  • the intensity of cuts and the risks to the path have moderated
  • indefinite suspension of further US tariffs and technology sanctions on China - and likely retaliation - imply a modestly better growth path for both economies and for connected trading partners, reducing risks to the global economy
  • We now see a more persistent but shallower path of USD appreciation, as there is less negative bite from US interest rates in the near term and less of a rise in non-US risk premia, given the improved global outlook"