BOE Ramsden speaking
- continues to see the current stance of policy as appropriate given current degree of uncertainty around the health and economic outlook
- it remains appropriate for policy to lean strongly against the downside risks to the outlook
- very welcome progress with the vaccination program has reduced a number of uncertainties and risks, but they have by no means gone away entirely
- he is confident that QE works as intended as a monetary policy tool
- says for me QE is a marginal monetary policy tool at present
- effects of QE are likely to be state contingent, meaning that there is no single effect of QE
- if needed the Bank of England could reevaluate some of its self-imposed constraints on QE purchases to create more headroom
- work on negative rates is contingency planning
- risk is skewed toward higher UK unemployment
- measures of inflation expectations such as those from financial markets have been stable and consistent with the target
- main outlook is for slowing in pace of QE
The GBPUSD remains between its 100 and 200 hour moving averages. The 100 hour moving averages at 1.38705. Stay below, keeps the bears in control at least in the short term. The 200 hour moving average at 1.38244 remains the next key target. The pair has been able to dip below a recent swing low from February 12 at 1.38402, but momentum could not be sustained.
