What happens now after UK lawmakers passed the Letwin amendment?


After the amendment has passed, Johnson has reluctantly sent in a request to the EU to seek for a three-month extension to the Brexit deadline. However, he also sent a subsequent letter explaining why the UK government did not want an extension.

Meanwhile, back in Westminster, Commons leader Jacob Rees-Mogg has said that there will be a full emergency business statement for today.

So, what is going to happen now in the whole Brexit drama? Let's take a look.

Battle in Brussels


Now that Johnson has sent in a formal request seeking an extension, it is up to EU27 members to ultimately decide if we are going to see a Brexit delay.

At this stage, the only way a no-deal Brexit can still happen by 31 October is if there is no unanimous approval among EU27 members on the decision.

And in the event of any extension, they could set out a different length than the three months requested - either shorter or longer.

However, considering that the UK government is planning to push forward with a vote on the withdrawal agreement bill this week, the EU is likely not going to respond to the request until that is out of the way.

The idea behind this is to keep the pressure on UK lawmakers to agree on something at least before yet another extension.

Battle in London


Johnson is trying to push forward with a "straight up-and-down vote" today but it remains to be seen if that will actually happen.

They believe they have the numbers and the momentum to win such a vote but it will come down to whether or not speaker John Bercow will allow for such a motion to take place in Westminster later today.

In a sense, the government is asking for a "meaningful vote" but parliamentary convention dictates that such requests could be rejected so as to not repeatedly ask lawmakers the same question over and over again.

As such, the Brexit agenda and order flow isn't certain at this point in time.

That said, the government could present the full withdrawal agreement bill early this week and seek parliament to vote on legislation and amendments related to that by 31 October.

In short, it's a hot mess in parliament at the moment and we will have to see what Johnson's game plan will be if he is not granted a "meaningful vote" today.

So, what can we expect?

The pound is holding weaker for the time being as the immediate optimism of a Brexit deal gets dealt a blow. If Bercow doesn't grant a "meaningful vote" today, we could see some follow through weakness in the currency - though I would argue it would be mild.

However, if Bercow does grant such a motion, the sentiment sort of evolves into the sort of anticipation somewhat similar (not exactly) to that when we were headed towards the weekend - though with less added uncertainty.

As for the EU side of the equation, don't expect any firm answers any time soon until just before the deadline next week.

There will be a lot of hints to pressure UK lawmakers into deciding on something until then, but come what will, it is unimaginable to believe any member state would veto the request to prolong the Brexit pain for another couple of months.