The IEA reported that OECD commercial oil stocks rose by a “steeper than usual” 44.2m barrels in May to a total of 2.639bn.
- They see non OPEC supply growing by 1.2mbpd in 2015 and cuts 2014 forecast growth to 1.4mbpd from 1.5m
- Cuts OPEC 2014 demand by 200k to 29.9mbpd
- Says OPEC output fell 40k in June to 30.03m on Iraq output which fell 260k in June to 3.17mbpd
- Says market looks well supplied but risks from OPEC supply points remain extraordinarily high and there is little room for complacency
- 2015 global demand will be met with rising supplies from the US and Canada
- Demand to be led by newly industrialised and emerging market economies
It’s looking like a pretty stable market on the supply/demand front going forward and so the risks will come from the usual places like the Middle East and other geopolitical news. That gives us the great opportunity to fade any fear trades unless they lead to World War III, and then it won’t matter anyway.
Brent initially fell to 107.98 in the August futures and 108.40 in the Sep market. The 200 wma is still marking the bottom of the recent falls and we’re holding back above the June 2012 support line and 108.32 level. The 100 dma is capping any bounces so far.
Brent crude daily chart 11 07 2014
