What are the surprises this year
Blackrock's Byron Wien has teamed up with Joe Zidle this year to deliver his annual list of surprises. But first, click here to see how he did in his 2019 surprises. The theme was that market predictions were solid while political ones were off the mark.
This year his main outlook for the economy is negative and he says:
The economy disappoints the consensus forecast, but a recession is avoided. Federal Reserve Chair Powell lowers the Fed funds rate to 1%. Without a comprehensive trade deal in hand, President Trump exercises every executive authority he has to stimulate growth and ward off recession. He cuts payroll taxes to put more money in the hands of consumers.
The current Fed funds rate is 1.50-1.75% so that implies 2-3 cuts.
Here are some market predictions:
- The price of WTI crude oil soars above $70
- The S&P 500 rises above 3500 at some point in the year but volatility rises
- FAANG stocks underperform amid greater oversight
- The "UK equity market rises and the pound rallies"
- US 10-year yield 'approaches' 2.5%
- India's market rises 20%
See the full list here.
