CANADA: Canada’s data roster Friday includes Feb CPI at 7:00 am EDT
(consensus at 0.4% m-o-m and 1.5% y-o-y, y-o-y core at 1.8%) and retail
sales at 8:30 am EDT. Krishen Rangasamy of CIBC warns that the market
may start anticipating BOC rate hikes “sooner rather than later” if
Friday’s retail sales data is overly upbeat. CIBC looks for gains of
1.2% (ex autos) m-o-m, which is above consensus (+0.6%), he notes. The
BOC’s decision is complicated by “the recent spurt in the C$”, which if
sustained, may reduce the probability of rate hikes – and market will be
aware of that,” Rangasamy says. “At this point” CIBC looks for the BOC
to raise the overnight rate at its July meeting,” he adds.