GDP expected up 0.1% m/m
Canadian GDP is due at the bottom of the hour (1230 GMT) and the consensus is for a 0.1% m/m rise in July and a climb of 2.2% y/y.
There were some large outages in July in the oilsands and that's likely to curtail growth however this week's wholesale sales data was up 1.5% in July compared to 0.4% expected.
Here's what TD writes:
"The pullback in energy output will leave services to drive growth while manufacturing and utilities provide a modest offset. A country-wide heat wave will provide a key tailwind to the latter, though it also threatens residential construction due to unfavourable working conditions. Weakness in the energy sector should be temporary, and we look for output in the oil sands to bounce back in the coming months. Furthermore, we expect the BoC to look through such distortions ahead of the October meeting."
They expect a flat reading.
As for USD/CAD, the trade won't be a 'clean' one because the US PCE report for August will be released at the same time as the Canadian data. Later today, leaks suggest the US will publish a Mexico-only trade deal text, which could be accompanied by some anti-Canada rhetoric.
I spoke to BNNBloomberg yesterday about the loonie:
