Highlights of the Canadian July retail sales report:

  • Prior was +0.6% (revised to +0.4%)
  • Retail sales ex-autos 0.0% vs +0.5% exp
  • Prior ex-autos +0.8% (revised to +0.5%)
  • Sales +1.8% y/y
  • Sales ex-autos and gas +3.0% y/y
  • Full report
  • New car sales +2.7%
  • Motor vehicle cars and sales +2.0%
  • Clothing +2.5%

There was a wide discrepancy in the Bloomberg and Reuters 'consensus' surveys for this data point. Bloomberg showed +0.7% on headline and +0.5% ex-autos; Reuters showed +0.5% and +0.4%, respectively.

Either way, this was a soft report. The ex-autos reading is the important one and it was weak with downward revisions. In my preview for this report I wrote about how the BOC and most economists expect the contraction in the Canadian economy to remain limited to the oil sector but the risks are that it begins to spill over.

It's way too early to draw any conclusions and the four-month average of retail sales ex-autos is still +0.2% but it's moving in the wrong direction. That said, digging through the details of this report, it's hard to conclude that the Canadian consumer is suffering.