Ratings agency S&P on the virus impact on economic growth in China in 2020
The firm estimates coronavirus will lower China's GDP growth by 0.7% to to 5.0% this year with a peak effect in Q1
- expect a rebound in GDP to begin in Q3, all lost output recovered by the end of 2021
A subtraction of 0.3% is their estimate for the impact on global GDP growth in 2020
More:
- New coronavirus a "high" risk to global credit conditions in Asia-Pacific and more particularly China
- an "elevated" risk for rest of the world given lower infection and fatality rates outside China
- speed and spread of coronavirus in past two months poses an emergent risk to global economy and credit
- economic hit from coronavirus (including travel restrictions) to be felt most keenly in sectors exposed to Chinese household-related spending
- expect a lag in lifting travel restrictions, return of more normal behavior by Chinese consumers, firms and to a lesser extent, Asia-Pacific
