Bloomberg’s survey of economists shows:

  • The April trade balance is expected to come in at +$16.15bn (prior was -$0.88bn)
  • Exports for April are expected at +9.2% y/y (vs. +10.0% prior)
  • Imports for April are expected to come in at +13.0% y/y (after a prior of +14.1% in March)

Reuters survey has:

  • April estimated trade surplus of $15.1 billion
  • Exports expected at +10.3% for April y/y
  • Imports expected at +13.9 percent y/y

  • Note, data from South Korea and Taiwan, two other export-oriented economies has been soft, indicating weaker global demand.
  • Chinese PMI data have also been weak lately

It would not be surprising to see weak numbers out of China today given this backdrop.