Citi oil analysis, main points:

  • likely price rebound to continue over the next 18 months
  • OPEC+ efforts to curb supplies to persist
  • near-term loss of US shale oil


Brent crude futures averaging $48/b in Q4 of this year

  • average $61/b during Q4 2021

Further out:

  • "We're relatively bullish the market going into 2022 because we see relatively strong discipline on the OPEC+ side and we see a postponement of projects and we see lost oil in the world, particularly in North America"
  • Brent futures averaging $59/b in 2022
  • $55/b in 2023


Separately from Citi:

  • Sees global oil demand coninuing to rise as lockdowns ease
  • But won't reach 2019 levels before late 2021
  • inventories will be showing a strong draw by mid-July