Futures speculative positioning data from the CFTC as of the close on Tuesday:

  • EUR net short 9K vs net long 19K prior
  • JPY net short 65K vs 66K prior
  • GBP net short 36K vs 23K prior
  • AUD net long 26K vs 44K prior
  • CAD net short 21K vs net long 19K prior

The market, understandably, jumped in to short the euro after the Italian election. The speculative market has also piled into CAD shorts and is the most negative since January 2012.

Perhaps the biggest takeaway continues to be GBP. I have repeatedly warned that the lack of speculative interest in cable meant it could continue to go lower. On Feb 1, I wrote:

The speculative market hasn’t even got involved in GBP shorts yet. If specs begin to pile it, cable could hit 1.50.

Even now, there is room to add to cable shorts, although the risk/reward ratio isn’t nearly as favorable.

GBP positioning CFTC commitments of traders

GBP positioning CFTC commitments of traders