Previous forecast was for the ECB to hike its deposit rate in Q3 2019
This is from Bloomberg's latest survey on economists conducted on the 4th to 10th of January this year. Expectations for the ECB to raise its deposit rate by 15 bps has now been pushed back to Q4 2019 from Q3 2019 previously. A move back towards 0% policy is still seen around Q2 2020.
Compared to money market pricing, traders are only pricing in a full 15 bps rate hike by the middle of next year for the time being.
As noted earlier, the ECB is set to meet on 24 January next and if they show further concerns surrounding the economic slowdown in the region and start debating on changing their rate guidance in the coming months, expect calls/forecasts to be pushed further back to next year instead.
