Economists still expect ECB to hike rates in Q4 2019

Author: Justin Low | Category: News

Bloomberg's latest survey on economists show no major changes in median forecasts compared to that in January

ECB rate hike forecast
The January poll can be found here. This comes despite the more dovish tone by the central bank over the past month and further signs that the economic slowdown is carrying forward to the new year.

I wouldn't look too much into the forecasts here as they will surely be revised in due time. As long as inflationary pressures continue to stagnate/grow weaker and the economic slowdown is still ever present, I can't imagine the ECB moving forward with a decision to normalise policy this year.

One of the more obvious indications that pricing of an ECB rate hike has weakened significantly is the decline seen in the EUR 5Y inflation swap forward. It has dropped to just under 1.45% no to its lowest level since October 2016 and that is a far cry from the confidence traders have shown in pricing up until November last year.

EUR 5Y inflation swap

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