Estimates for Australian Q4 GDP revised lower

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News

Late last week I posted in what was expected for Australian Q4 GDP

We've had some poor data since, and Bloomberg have just given a heads-up on a revised set of forecasts now:

  • 0.4% q/q and 2.5% y/y is the new consensus median expectations

From a survey of 28

  • The data is due Wednesday (Australia time) at 0030GMT

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Just a bit more, this is via Westpac (Andrew Hanlon) on today's data and what it means for the GDP

  • We have revised down our forecast for Q4 GDP to 0.3% qtr, 2.5%yr (from 0.5% qtr)
  • This takes on board the downside surprises from inventories and net exports
  • Domestic demand is weak in the quarter, edging only 0.1% higher
  • Mining investment downturn remains a key headwind
  • Total business investment expected to contract by 3.5% in Q4
  • The terms of trade fall of 3.2%qtr will contribute to an insipid read on nominal GDP, forecast to be 0.1%qtr, 1.8%yr
  • Forecast for consumption to expand by 0.5% in Q4, a moderation from a 0.7% gain in Q3
  • Positives are that the lower dollar is boosting the services sectors, as evident from strong export growth, and lower rates are boosting home building activity
  • Also, job creation strengthened in 2015, including a 0.7%qtr increase in Q4.
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