UBS on the euro against the GBP (in brief):

  • We expect the multi-year sideways trend of EURGBP in a 0.85-0.90 range to continue. Spikes above 0.90 so far have proven to be shortlived.
  • We have set our end-December forecast at 0.89 and our forecast for 1Q21 at 0.88. June and September 2021 should see a small decline to 0.87
  • We recommend holding the pound and see little reason for EUR-based investors to hedge existing GBP positions, as our forecasts remain well below the forward rates

5 year chart:

UBS on the euro against the GBP (in brief):

ps. UBS note from late last week. The bank refer to 'spikes' above 0.90 … the March move stretch to circa 0.95 … that sure is some spike!