Good morning ladies and gents. Hope you all had a great weekend.

What a damp squib Chinese data turned out to be. I thought I’d get up for it as it can be a good opportunity to get in at a decent level ahead of Europe. I think there’s some mild feeling of relief in the market that the figure was a bad miss but we’ll have to wait and see whether the slowdown fears have been totaly put to one side.

It’s a new week so let’s have a look what EUR/USd has for us today.

The euro has been pretty resilient since the big jump up from 1.2750 and that could have confirmed a strong double bottom at the level.

eurusdweekly 15 07 2013

The fact remains though, that we are still back in the 1.2750-1.3200 range that we’ve seen for the last 5 odd months. Breakouts have been fleeting and quickly reversed on the upside.

The intraday range has been tight, around 130 pips and so the tech has played a part in defining the boundaries.

eurusdh4 15 07 2013

There’s a lot of levels building up both above and below the current price that should keep us contained if we start to wind down for summer trading.

Here are the levels to watch.


  • 1.3212 res
  • 1.3157 res
  • 1.3111 res
  • 1.3100 200 H4ma
  • 1.3081 100 wma
  • 1.3071 200 dma

Current price 1.3055


  • 1.3027 100 dma
  • 1.3010 sup
  • 1.3006 100 H4ma
  • 1.2954 sup
  • 1.2941/43 55 wma & 55 H4ma
  • 1.2910 sup
  • 1.2812 strong sup

Short term, the safe play is the 1.2750-1.3200 edges but if we do get another move down towards 1.2750 in the next couple of days beware of a potential break. I personally don’t like a quick revisit of a big holding level as that implies increased pressure in that direction.