–$600B In Additional Asset Purchases A Good Starting Point
–Fed Could Buy Assets Based On A Meeting-By-Meeting Approach
–Key To Monitor Labor Market After Asset Purchases
–Unemployment Could Go Up By ‘A Couple Of Tenths’ Next Few Months
–Worried That Recent Hiring Is Transitory

By Alyce Andres-Frantz

CARMEL, Indiana (MNI) – Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President
Charles Evans said Friday additional purchases of mortgage-backed
securities would have a more direct impact on the U.S. economy.

Evans, who is at the end of his turn as a voter on the
policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee, and was the lone dissenter
at the December meeting, reiterated his desire for more monetary policy
stimulus through asset purchases.

Following a speech at the Indiana Bankers Association Economic
Outlook Forum., Evans told the press, “I would like to be very firm” in
regards to more monetary accommodation.

Evans explained the Fed could continue to purchase U.S. Treasuries,
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debt and MBS with an aim at reducing the
unemployment rate to below 7%.

He told reporters that purchasing “MBS could be perfectly fine,”
adding, “I think buying MBS would have a more direct effect on the
economy.”

In a speech on Wednesday, Evans laid out scenarios whereby lower
mortgage rates would spark wealth in homeowners pockets, increase
discretionary spending by consumers, increase both demand and output and
ultimately influence hiring.

Evans clarified that when speaking on Wednesday in Lake Forest,
Illinois, he outlined a hypothetical situation whereby the Fed could
purchase $600 billion in additional assets, then reassess the net
effects.

“I think I said $600 billion because that is what we have done in
the past,” Evans told the press.

Nonetheless, he said, “I think it (additional QE) has to be
something substantial, $600 billion is a good start.”

Evans suggested that “the Fed could decide to do something meeting
by meeting,” meaning “buy some assets, then reassess” the impact on the
economy.

After additional asset purchases, the Fed could “monitor
improvement in labor market and if it does not quickly improve, we could
follow up with more asset purchases,” Evans said.

He also told the press that if the Fed “behaves aggressively,” the
U.S. could get economic performance one to two years earlier than
expected.

Evans added it was “possible that over the next few months
unemployment rate could go up a couple of tenths.” This is based on the
premise that the fourth quarter will be strong but then drop off to
2-2.5% going forward. The latter growth forecast “is not going to make
a big dent in the unemployment rate,” he said.

In a question and answer session with the audience, Evans said an
8.5% unemployment rate would not be a big surprise going forward, noting
that there are “not as many people coming into labor force as typical”
and the increases in the number of discouraged workers.

It has really been the case that the high level of unemployment is
because of layoffs, he said. But, unemployment remains high due to the
hiring rate being “greatly diminished.”

“Workforces at firms are not going down, but they are not adding,”
Evans told the audience.

“I am worried that recent hiring is transitory,” he added,
reiterating that more accommodation should inspire demand, growth, and a
need for hiring.

Evans reiterated his desire for “more aggressive policy,” with a
risk management approach. “I want to make sure there is enough
accommodation in there and see if it works.”

He said that he and his staffers have been working to repair the
financial crisis for a long time. “At some point we will get past it.
When we look back, we are going to see mistakes that were made. But one
mistake I will not accept is that we did not try.”

“Monetary policy cannot do everything, but we have to respond to
the situation,” Evans told the audience.

He added, “if inflation increases, long-term rates will go up and
the Fed is responsible for inflation. This is why we want to keep
inflation in check. We do not want to deviate much from that except in
extraordinary situations, which I think today is.”

“If these are transitory instances, and (we) get back to output
that we had in the past, the burden of debt would be less,” he said. “It
is a delicate issue. The debt is high, it is a problem,” Evans said,
encouraging more work from the Obama Administration and Congress.

Evans also said the Fed’s recent White Paper on housing sent to
Congress was a response to a number of requests. It was aimed at
discussing the bottlenecks weighing on housing and to offer refinancing
ideas.

** Market News International **

[TOPICS: M$U$$$,MMUFE$,MGU$$$,MFU$$$]