For NZD traders - preview of the CPI data due later this week

I posted this earlier: DB on the kiwi - short

In their trade reasoning DB cite looking for a soft result fro inflation, due Thursday

Here is a what to expect via ASB

We expect the CPI to have lifted 0.4% qoq in Q1, with annual inflation a subdued 1%.

• Our forecast is weaker than the RBNZ's inflation forecast published in the February MPS of +0.6% qoq, 1.1% yoy.
• Despite still-strong housing-related inflation and a 10% lift in the tobacco excise tax, underlying inflation pressures are expected to remain weak.
• Further weighing on inflation in Q1 is the introduction of one year's free tertiary education.

With the annual CPI likely to fall back to the bottom of the inflation band, the RBNZ will be feeling little rush to change policy settings.

• However, we do expect inflation pressures to increasingly build over the coming years and for the RBNZ to respond by lifting the OCR in the second half of 2019.