Due at 0830GMT, this is the 2nd estimate of Q1 GDP
… the subdued first reading is not expected to be improved upon …. previews via ….
RBC:
- Despite the ONS assertion in the commentary accompanying its preliminary Q1 GDP release that weather didn't play much of a role in the softer than expected growth outturn of 0.1% q/q, the Bank of England was confident at its May 10th meeting that the slowdown would prove temporary.
- Indeed, the Bank was quite bullish that the preliminary estimate was likely to have overstated the extent of the slowdown and would be revised up in subsequent releases.
- However, outside some upward revisions to construction output, there has been little in the data released since the ONS released its early GDP estimate to suggest a rebound in activity toward the end of the quarter which makes it difficult to make a strong case for an upward revision to the earlier estimate on this occasion.
Daiwa:
- While the most recent monthly figures show that construction activity contracted by less than the ONS had initially thought, this was offset by a smaller rise in IP than first gauged. Accordingly, there is little reason to expect a revision from the first estimate of 0.1%Q/Q, barring a significant revision to services output.
Nomura:
- In the absence of revisions to the headline 0.1% quarterly growth rate, the focus will be on the expenditure details, particularly on consumer spending and business investment (both of which grew at 0.3% in Q4 2017).
Barclays:
- Recent activity data continues to point to Q1 growth at 0.1% q/q. Trade data point to a neutral contribution to Q1 GDP following a negative -0.4qq contribution in Q4, while dwelling construction points to a -0.11pp contribution of residential housing to investment growth.
