Forex news for January 19, 2015:
- ECB will do QE this week says Hollande
- Just kidding, Hollande says, it was just a hypothesis
- Bundesbank striving to put limits on ECB QE – Rtrs
- Denmark goes negative on rates
- Iranian oil minister has no plans to call for emergency OPEC meeting
- EU’s Moscovici says debt reduction is being made more difficult because of low inflation
- Merkel says this is not a week of destiny for the euro
- Merkel says any ECB action shouldn’t lead to loss of focus on reforms
- France is not the sick man of Europe says Moscovici
- Coeure: EU should focus more on growth than debt restructuring
- Irish fin min says ECB QE risks becoming ineffective
- Poll shows Syriza widening lead in Greek election
- Fed officials on track to raise short-term rates later in the year – Hilsenrath
- Gold down $3.59 to $1276.85
- WTI crude down $1.17 to $47.52
- S&P 500 futures down 4 points to 2008
- Euro leads, Swiss franc lags
The US was on holiday so it’s no surprise that newsflow was a bit lighter than usual. The focus is on Europe this week ahead of the ECB decision. Hollande was on the wires saying it was a done deal and then backtracked. It doesn’t really matter anyway because he’s not the first to let out the secret. If you’re a euro bear, it’s concerning that there is no fresh selling on these headlines. The real debate now is the size of the QE program. The euro put in a solid performance but the rally peaked at 1.1639, just shy of Friday’s high. After Europe shut down, the US dollar grinded higher and that pulled the euro back to 1.1600.
USD/JPY was able to briefly take out Friday’s high but only by a couple pips in a rally to 117.64. That was a solid bounce after a drop down to 116.93 in Asia.
Cable was on the defensive and fell to 1.5109 — the lowest since the spike down after the SNB decision. All of the decline — about 50 pips — came in the thin market after the US shut down.
USD/CAD was a tough one to understand as it slid lower despite falling oil prices. I have a hard time believing any moves in such a thin market and if you were looking for a nonsensical move to fade, that might be the spot but keep in mind the BOC decision later this week.
AUD/USD traded within the confines set out in Asia. The US high was 0.8227 and the low came late at 0.8200.
EUR/CHF was steadily on the uptrend but just in the past couple hours it’s flatlined just above 1.0200. The high of 1.0215 and the extremely tight range suggests a relatively heavy bid on the topside along with a lack of motivated sellers. Overall, the pair made some nice progress from around parity at the start of European trading.