Forex news for January 16, 2016:
- US Dec CPI ex-food and energy 1.6% y/y vs 1.7% y/y exp
- US Dec industrial production -0.1% vs -0.1% exp
- U Mich US consumer sentiment Dec prelim 98.2 vs 94.1 exp
- SNB’s Jordan: Market reaction has gone too far
- Fed’s Kocherlakota: Expects to see some acceleration in wages
- Fed’s Williams: 5.2% unemployment would be ‘normal’
- Williams: Low bond yields not about US, about weakness abroad
- Fed’s Bullard: Low inflation alone doesn’t justify zero rates
- Bullard: US can do well with current trade-weighted dollar
- Bullard says ‘not aware’ of the Fed getting a warning from SNB
- Leucadia to give FXCM $300m in financing –
- Surging Greek deposit outflows have officials mulling 3rd bailout – RTRS source
- United Press and NY Post twitter accounts hacked
- Fitch revises Greek outlook to negative, confirms Germany
- Moody’s cuts Russia to Baa3, warns of further cut
- Gold up $17.70 to $1280
- WTI crude up $2.25 to $48.50
- US 10-year yields up 12 bps to 1.84%
- S&P 500 up 27 points to 2019
- AUD and USD lead, CHF and JPY lag
There was no definitive theme in Friday US trading and that’s not a big surprise given that the data was mixed, a long weekend is ahead and that most-everyone felt like the world turned upside down after the SNB bomb.
The early move was all about US dollar strength. The U Mich numbers added a reason to buy and momentum took it from there as EUR/USD broke down to an 11-year low of 1.1440 in a relatively quick move. But the euro managed to claw back the US losses to 1.1564 over the remainder of the day as positions were squared up. The late headlines basically confirmed that ECB sovereign QE is coming but had little effect.
USD/JPY did a better job of hanging onto its gains. That was helped in large part by a much better stock market. From 116.50 it climbed to 117.76 and then chopped between there and 117.35.
Cable has been in the midst of a solid bounce after the rout to start the year but it started to reverse today in a quick fall to 1.5075 from 1.5235. The move looked to be all about the US dollar as there wasn’t any domestic news driving it.
The commodity bloc was generally sidelined. USD/CAD climbed up to 1.2047 in European trading but slid back even as the US dollar was strengthening elsewhere and finishes at 1.1971. AUD/USD slipped to a session low of 0.8165 in US trading and then climbed to 0.8240.
Gold was the winner once again as it took out some technical levels on a march to $1280 including the 200dma. Lots of eyes are suddenly on gold as it nears the September highs as $1300. Prices are up 8% ytd.
Reminder: US on holiday Monday
Thanks for hanging in there with us this week. It was a harrowing couple days. May the survivors prosper.
