Forex news for Asia trading Tuesday, May 14 2019
- Flicking the switch to (currency) risk in Asia today
- More from the NAB business survey (on jobs and the RBA)
- BOJ Gov Kuroda speaking - will need to continue easing for a while
- PBOC injects one year funds via MLF
- ICYMI - Australian business confidence 0 (prior -1) and conditions 3 (prior 7)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.8365
- Australia business confidence up one point in April (careful of this - see post)
- Japan fin min Aso says he does not expect trade war to be as big an economic shock as Lehman Brothers
- US President Trump says he feels US-China trade talks will be successful
- Heads up for a EUR risk ( … and MXN) this week as US expected to decide on EU auto tariffs
- Bearish EUR calls … but here is a risk to the topside to consider
- NZ fin min warns on unstable environment for NZ exporters
- S&P ratings says its too early to make a strong case for a Mexico downgrade
- Japan BoP Current Account (preliminary) Balance for March Y 2847.9bn (expected Y 3020bn)
- Latest weekly consumer sentiment data from Australia, falls 2.1%
- Despite all the US - China trade war escalation optimism persists
- Next major support level for USD/JPY (108.50) and level to target if it pierces there
- What to watch if you're bullish GBP and want to re-enter longs
- CME Bitcoin futures reached an all-time record high of 33.7k contracts on May 13
- Latest from Moody's is a warning on a breakdown in US-China trade talks
- Brexit - UK PM May moving towards holding a series of “definitive votes” on different options
- MSCI boosts China A shares weighting in emerging markets
- NZ data - April house prices higher, sales lower
- Trade ideas thread - Tuesday 14 May 2019
- Fed's Rosengren: Premature to judge economic impact of trade dispute with China
After the rout on US stock markets on Monday US President Trump tried to stem the bleeding today. He said he expects to know how the talks will turn out on 3 to 4 weeks and feels they will be very successful. Feels. On the evidence we have seen so far, accelerating tit for tat tariffs, while I hope he is correct, I suspect not.
Nevertheless, his comment served to provide some support. Overnight equity futures on Globex recovered some ground. 'Risk' currencies had been seeing some stabilisation and they further improved after the remarks.
NZD was a good gainer, with NZD/USD from lows just under 0.6565 to above 0.6590 briefly. USD/JPY saw early Japan lows under 109.20 in the session before rebounding 40+ points.
AUD managed to recover some ground also. Data today (NAB business survey) was not supportive, especially the employment sub-index that fell sharply on the month. EUR, GBP, CAD - all showed minor gains against the US dollar also.
Regional stock markets here opened lower, following the lead of the trashing on Wall Street and have not managed to struggle into the green on the session so far.
The PBOC set the mid rate for USD/CNY well above 6.8 today. Also today it became expensive to short the yuan, with one-month HIBOR moving to its highest for the year, overnight to its highest since late March. While the PBOC has let the yuan slide they will not want a weak currency to be an entrenched expectation, fearing faster capital outflow. Offshore yuan managed to inch claw a few points back on the session. Check the chart out for context though.
Still to come:
