ForexLive Asia FX news wrap: Superbowl will be Patriots vs. Rams
Forex news for Asia trading Monday 21 January 2019
I hadn't mentioned the football all day, that headline is the summary though!
OK, back to business:
- Goldman Sachs on GBP - higher through 2019
- Moody's questions how effective China govt stimulus can be given high debt loads
- Responses to the China data coming in
- China - comments on data coming - NBS says economic conditions are complicated
- China Q4 2018 GDP: 6.4% y/y (expected 6.4%)
- China December activity data - industrial production, retail sales and more
- China IP headline taking a wee bite out of 'risk'
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.7774 (vs. yesterday at 6.7665)
- US China trade talks - said to be little progress on intellectual property issues
- Deutsche Bank looking for China shares to lead Asia higher in 2019
- UK data - House prices from Rightmove for January: +0.4% m/m (prior -1.5%)
- Australia financial press notes 50/50 chance for RBA rate cut … in December
- Reuters tankan shows manufacturer's sentiment slipping to a 2 year low
- Germany is preparing for a potential hard Brexit says German foreign minister
- Moody's on 'pressure' felt in Australia from house price falls
- US President Trump and Turkish President Erdogan spoke on Sunday
- Brexit - UK press: Theresa May mulls amending Good Friday Agreement
- Brexit - UK PM May said to seek changes to Irish backstop. EU likely to object.
- Trade ideas thread - Monday 21 January 2019
- Here is what’s on the economic calendar in Asia today – China economic growth data
- Brexit - weekend news - UK Cabinet meeting Sunday, statement coming Monday
- Brexit - weekend news - Corbyn looks to delay exit (can kick)
- US govt shutdown, weekend news - offer made, rejected
- Monday morning forex opening price indications, 21 January 2019
Weekend news was not of much impact in the early hours here as Asia got the week underway. Minor FX wiggles only on shutdown and Brexit developments.
While we awaited the main event, the 'activity' data for December from China and of course Q4 GDP also we got a report that US Treasury had informed some members of Congress that the trade talks were not coming along to well, with intellectual property issues a sticking point. IP issues are going to be a thorny issue indeed, maybe the central point of the whole dispute. Sort of like the border issue in Ireland for Brexit - its nigh on intractable.
As the US Treasury comments crossed the wires risk indicators fell just a little, AUD, NZD, ES all dropped. Like I said, 'a little' and the drop did not extend (I'll come back to this ...it did for the kiwi later).
And so to the data from China. GDP (you'll never guess) managed to hit target for 2018 (a little above). Activity data was pretty much in line also. The headlines were supportive for a few minutes but questions on the data were soon raised. Not just their veracity. GDP, for example, showed its 3rd consecutive quarterly fall and the Q4 headling of 6.4% is the lowest since the global financial crisis back in 2008. For the full 2018 year the 6.6% results is the lowest in 28 years. Of course, responses covered the likely hood of more stimulus. Rates soon settled back into a slumber.
Except for NZD, which has fallen to new session lows as I update. Later this week (Wednesday) we get one of the quarterly official CPI releases. For today, though there was nothing specific I could find on the kiwi apart from the usual concerns weighing on it.
AUD, EUR, CAD, GBP, CHF are all little net changed on the session here against the USD. USD/JPY traded to circa 109.50 mid-Tokyo morning and is around 109.60 as I post.
Still to come:
- Heads up for the US holiday Monday - Martin Luther King Jr. Day
- FX option expiries Monday 21 January 2019 at the 10am NY cut
- ANZ on the Bank of Japan monetary policy board meeting, and looking ahead ... complications
- A look at the major earnings to be released in the January 21-25 week
- Some big data releases coming up from the Asian timezone next week - heads up
- Look ahead to Thursday's ECB meeting no change expected, but a more dovish Draghi