Forex news for Asia trading Wednesday 30 October 2019
- RBA expectations - December interest rate cut more likely?
- After today's CPI Westpac maintain their forecast for an RBA rate cut in February
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0582 (vs. yesterday at 7.0617)
- ICYMI: US-China trade deal might not be ready for signing in Chile next month
- Australia Q3 CPI: Headline 0.5% q/q (vs 0.5% expected)
- UK data - BRC Shop Price Index -0.4% y/y for October (prior -0.6%)
- Japan - Retail sales for September +7.1% m/m (vs. expected +3.5%)
- EU to dial back restrictions on imports of Japanese food products
- CME penalising algorithms 'bombarding' the exchange
- China's UN envoy says US criticism of China re Xinjiang is not helpful for trade talks
- NZ data, Q3 jobs ads rise after falling in Q2
- ICYMI - China to loosen restrictions on foreign investment
- US votes to impose sanctions on Turkey (due to incursion into Syria)
- Here's a bull view on GBP on the UK election news
- Trade ideas thread - Wednesday 30 October 2019
- Private oil data shows a draw in headline crude oil inventory
- UK general election confirmed Thursday December 12
The UK will hold a general election on Thursday, December 12 amidst the swirl of Brexit. UK PM Johnson secured enough votes Tuesday evening UK time. Whether it resolves anything on Brexit remains to be seen, but there is a chance it'll break the deadlock so at least its a step forward. Or not.
We'll see. GBP is very little changed for the session here in Asia.
EUR/USD, too, is very little changed and you can pop USD/CAD and USD/CHF in to that description also.
We had inflation data from Australia today which prompted some AUD movement. Going into the data release the Australian dollar was a little weaker, hitting its session low circa 0.6850 just prior to the data hitting. The data came in pretty much as expected, and really has not added much to our knowledge of the economy - inflation remains rolling along beneath target. Given RBA Governor Lowe's comments on Tuesday the data today was probably not low enough to prompt an imminent rate cut (the RBA meet Tuesday November 5) nor high enough to entertain thoughts of some sort extended pause in cuts from the Bank. The December meeting remains 'live' (there is no January meeting, as a reminder if you need it). The Australian dollar traded to its session high in the aftermath of the CPI release, just above 0.6870 and has since subsided back to be sitting just under mid-range as I update. NZD/USD traded a broadly similar pattern to AUD.
We also had data from Japan today, retail sales in September surged to beat of expectations. The October 1 sales tax hike prompted 'front-loading' of buying in September. The big beat today does not auger well for October figures, and perhaps beyond. The Bank of Japan meet and today's data will add in an extra consideration, even if only at the margin. Majority opinion remains it'll be an 'on hold' BOJ decision. USD/JPY can be another addition to the 'barely changed' bin today.
Still to come:
And - central bank's in the US and Canada, then Japan.
- FOMC meeting - domestic considerations
- FOMC meet today - rate cut is widely expected but its 'what's next?' of most focus
- FOMC decision due Wednesday - preview
- Federal Reserve's FOMC policy meeting Wednesday - rate cut preview
- What's priced in for the FOMC and BOC
- Federal Reserve FOMC - rate cut on the agenda says Goldman Sachs
- FOMC and BOJ meetings - forecast range for USD/JPY
- Bank of Canada monetary policy meeting preview
- CAD traders - its Bank of Canada meeting week - preview
- MUFG says the BOJ is likely to ease further - preview of Thursday's policy meeting
- BOJ preview and where to for USD/JPY
- the FOMC and BOJ meetings - forecast range for USD/JPY (a contrasitng view from analysts at MUFG)
- BOJ reportedly said to mull refraining from extra stimulus at next week's meeting
- Another piece suggesting the BOJ will leave policy unchanged
- BOJ meet this week - preview