Forex news for Asia trading Monday 5 September 2016


  • BOJ's Kuroda Q&A, says he has an open mind on direction of policy
  • BOJ's Kuroda speech - Limits to what the BOJ can do
  • NZ Treasury's Monthly Economic Indicators August 2016: 'stronger GDP growth'
  • Goldman Sachs economist says 55% chance of September FOMC rate hike
  • China - Caixin Services PMI 52.1 (prior 51.7) & Composite 51.8(51.9)
  • Australia - ANZ Job ads for August: 1.8% m/m (prior -0.8%)
  • Australia - Q2 Inventories 0.3% q/q (expected 0.3%) and company profits data
  • People’s Bank of China sets yuan reference rate at 6.6873 (vs. yesterday at 6.6727)
  • Australia: Inflation gauge (August): +0.2% m/m (prior -0.3%).
  • Its Governor Glenn Stevens' final RBA policy meeting Tuesday - preview for the AUD
  • Japan - Nikkei Services PMI 49.6 (prior 50.4) & Composite PMI 49.8 (prior 50.1)
  • China headlines ... 'no basis for continuous yuan depreciation'
  • Japan Labor cash earnings: +1.4% y/y (expected +0.4%, prior +1.4%)
  • Australia - Services PMI for August: 45.0 (prior 53.9)
  • UK data - BRC Shop Price Index for August: -2.0% y/y (prior -1.6%)
  • Australia - RBA meeting this week, quick preview
  • Moody's says Australia's economic strength supports triple A rating despite risks
  • Japan's 15-page letter to the UK on Brexit - just don't
  • German's AfD party beats Merkel in her home district
  • Monday's trade ideas thread - 5 September 2016
  • German press says euro zone won't release more bailout money for Greece this month
  • Monday morning FX 5 September 2016 - foreign exchange prices, early indications


  • Trading's little secret
  • Vancouver home sales drop as foreign buyers tax bites
  • G20: China and US agree to refrain from competitive currency devaluations
  • G20: China's Xi says leaders must avoid "empty talk" at summit
  • PM May says UK needs to be prepared for some "difficult times" post-Brexit
  • Forex trading can be like football. You win some. You lose some.
  • Greece could win short-term debt relief "very soon" if it implements reforms says the ESM
  • China has the ability to maintain a medium to high economic growth rate
  • Time for some thinking about trading. “Why Are So Many BASE Jumpers Dying?”

The yen was the mover today. USD/JPY was fairly stable just above 104 in the Tokyo morning but as markets there got more active USD/JPY dropped to around 103.70. It recovered nearly all of its losses but faltered above 104 and settle just under thr figure.

BOj Governor Kuroda spoke in the late Tokyo morning and into lunch (see bullets above, his initial speech then the Q&A); the takeaway (for me) seemed to be to expect a more of the same approach from the BOJ and that expectations for more easing are overblown. Kuroda indicated he saw positive signs for the economy, for inflation prospects (and he did not mention a 2 year timeframe ... a significant departure IMO). USD/JPY dropped to a fresh session low under 103.60 and is barely off those lows now as I update.

Earlier data from Japan showed wage growth in holding steady in July, and above what was expected. This is the 6 months in a row now that real wage growth has been reading in the positive.

Plenty of Australian data about today also, along with a relatively upbeat report from Moody's (see bullets above). The data was more mixed - the Services PMI for August plunged (its biggest one month drop ever). You'll recall from late last week the manufacturing PMI had a big drop, the PMI today from the larger services sector adds to worries.

Apart from this, though, Australian data was more robust. A private inflation (monthly) gauge showed a bounce (though still well below the RBA target band), inventories came in as expected (though the prior saw a huge revision lower) and company profits for Q2 soared (in at +6.9% q/q to blow away expectations at +2%). Job ads strongly up on the month also. AUD and NZD both edged a little higher during the session against the USD

EUR and GBP, too, were up a little against the USD. CHF barely changed, and pretty much ditto for gold. Oil dropped a few cents.

It was a holiday in India today, and it's a holiday coming up in the US on Monday ... so we might get to do this quiet sort of market movement all over again tomorrow in Asia (with an RBA meeting thrown in Tuesday!)

Regional equities:

  • Nikkei +1.09%
  • Shanghai +0.20%
  • HK +1.69%
  • ASX +1.02%

Still to come: RBA meeting Tuesday Australian time

  • Its Governor Glenn Stevens' final RBA policy meeting Tuesday - preview for the AUD
  • Australia - RBA meeting this week, quick preview