Forex news for Asia trading Thursday 6 June 2019
- ANZ expect the Fed to cut rates in October 2019 and in Q1 2020 - and risk for even sooner
- If you are an AUD bear, here you go - iron ore down 3% in China today, headed for big weekly decline
- Moody's gives New Zealand's budget the tick of approval
- Influential Swiss think tank urges the SNB to start working on a national cryptocurrency
- PBOC injects 500bn yuan in funds for one year (MLF)
- Australia trade balance for April: Surplus of AUD 4.871bn (vs. expected surplus AUD 5bn)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.8945 (vs. yesterday at 6.8903)
- New Zealand - ANZ commodity prices for May: 0.0% (prior +2.5%)
- Reuters polling - most expect USD strength to continue for 6 months
- Japan press - Mnuchin and Aso to discuss currency this weekend … maybe
- Here's a year end gold price forecast, 1,400USD.
- IMF'S Lagarde says does not see threat of global recession
- Not FX … but Fiat has withdrawn its proposal for a merger with Renault
- The Pentagon has held talks with African rare earth suppliers
- DKK traders - Danish PM concedes election defeat
- Mexican Foreign Minister Ebrard says tariffs were not discussed at today's meeting
- Trump says if no agreement reached with Mexico tariffs will be hiked on Monday
- US stock index futures reopen (Globex eminis) - drop half a percent. Yen up.
- US sec state Pompeo now going one-on-one with Mexico's foreign minister
- US media report there has been no deal reached between the US and Mexico in talks
- Fitch downgrades Mexico's rating to BBB, outlook revised to stable
- Moody's changes Mexico's outlook to negative from stable
- US intel shows Saudi Arabia escalated its missile program with help from China
- The big "if" (Trump hits China with more tariffs) - "full risk-off"
- US Agriculture Secretary hopeful the US & Mexico can avoid the tariffs
- Trade ideas thread - Thursday 6 June 2019
- NAB on the RBA - what to watch for a potential cash rate cut in July.
- CBA outlook for the RBA following this week's rate cut and yesterday's weak GBP reading
- ANZ on the RBA - rate cuts ahead on August and November
- Outlook for the AUD - rallies to be limited except against GBP
After US markets had packed up for Wednesday a quick 3 news items in succession hit the Mexican peso lower. Moody's downgraded their outlook for Mexico, Fitch cut the country's rating and then the US/Mexico trade talks finished for the day with little progress on tariffs nor immigration. The bullets are above, bolded.
The peso dropped as each development hit, all in the space of around 10 minutes.
What's ahead? Well, talks will continue Thursday US time. There do seem to be reasons to expect a resolution, but Trump again warned that he'd hike tariffs come Monday if nothing is agreed in coming days.
There was a small spread to 'risk off', but it was limited. Yen was a beneficiary, USD/JPY dropping from above 108.40 to circa 108.20 before a rebound .... and then back down toward 20 as I post.
The Australian dollar had barely a ripple and its maintained a small range for the session. Trade data for April showed a slightly smaller surplus than expected, and than in March, but a solid performance nonetheless. NZD has ticked up a little better, but again a small range only.
EUR, GBP barely changed on the session. Ditto for USD/CHF.
Oil managed to scrape back a few cents, CAD up a few ticks also.
Still to come:
