- EZ and IMF leaders met with Greek PM ahead of G20 summit
- Greek referendum is to be on continued EU membership and will probably happen on December 4th
- Next tranche of aid will not be delivered until this vote has been passed
- Early polls suggest that Greek voters want to stay in EU but don’t want the austerity packages which will come along with continued membership
- Australian retail sales as expected at +0.4% MoM
- New Zealand unemployment rate higher than expected at 6.6%
- USD/CNY fixed at new record low 6.3198
- Chinese President says EZ must fix it’s own problems
- NIESR forecasts UK growth at 0.9%
- Nikkei closed today; regional bourses fall by 1% on continued EZ uncertainty
- Gold $1730/oz
It’s been all about Greece yet again, with EZ leaders making it clear to the Greek PM that the referendum, now to be held on December 4th or 5th, will be on continued EUR membership. The tone of the headlines were that the EZ and IMF were preparing for a No vote, and would be working on contingencies. This of course sent the EUR lower, but the AUD fell even faster as risk aversion ramped up. A withdrawal would mean a 100% default, and of course have a huge impact on European banks.
EUR/USD opened just below 1.3750 but started to fall swiftly as the headlines hit the screens. Since touching an intial low near 1.3670, EUR/USD has consolidated in a 40 pip range. No sign of any Sovereign names buying but they are still anticipated on dips. EUR/CHF also provided some support as buying emerged near 1.2125 in the cross. Ranges: 1.3663/1.3754; EUR/CHF 1.2126/50
AUD/USD fell hard as risk aversion ramped up and momentum funds joined in the selling once the pair broke below 1.0280. Options players were also notable sellers as the market bought cover ahead of a potential 4 turbulent weeks. Small Sovereign bids and profit-taking orders near 1.0200 provided the base. Ranges: 1.0203/1.0346;
USD/JPY was quiet with Tokyo on holiday but the market still reports that the BOJ are present in the market, buying smaller amounts on dips. Range: 78.00/15
Cable 1.5875/1.5955; USD/CHF .8830/78