Forex news for New York trading on November 1, 2016

  • Hard for stocks to hold a candle in the cold November rain
  • US stocks rebound into the close. Still in the red at the close.
  • Economic data due from Asia today
  • US October total vehicle sales 18.29M annual rate - Autodata
  • USD into FOMC: 'No tricks, No treats'; Two areas of focus - BAML
  • This is what happens when you threaten Mexico and immigrant labor
  • SNB's Jordan reiterates that Swiss franc remains overvalued
  • Floor in the EURCHF? Be careful
  • Nov FOMC: On hold; Too early to say a December hike is a done deal - Danske
  • BOC's Poloz: Reiterates that downside risks seen in Sept have crystalized
  • No sounds of SNB cowbells ringing as 1.0800 breaks
  • Poloz: Weak business investment is a global phenomenon
  • Dollar moving lower. USDJPY, USDCHF, EURUSD leading the move
  • Bank of Canada's Poloz doesn't mention the outlook or interest rates
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow cuts Q4 GDP estimate to 2.3% from 2.7%
  • AUD to test peak at 0.7835 - BTMU
  • Fonterra GDP price index rises 11.4%
  • Survey bodes well for Q4 says ISM's Holcomb
  • US Sept construction spending -0.4% m/m vs +0.5% expected
  • October 2016 US ISM manufacturing PMI 51.9 vs 51.7 exp
  • October 2016 US Markit manufacturing PMI final 53.4 vs 53.2 exp
  • Canada Oct RBC manufacturing PMI 51.1 vs 50.3 prior
  • What's going on in the Swissy?
  • Canada August GDP +0.2% m/m vs +0.2% expected


  • WTI crude oil futures $46.81, -s$.06 or -0.17%
  • Spot gold $1288, plus $11.27 or +0.87%
  • US 10 year bond 1.2874%, unchanged
  • S&P index, -0.68%
  • The CHF is the strongest. The USD and GBP are the weakest.

The US session saw the US dollar move lower - mainly on election fears. Clinton emails continued to surface from Wikileaks with promises for more damaging ones to come before the November 8th election. There was even a false report that Michelle Obama scrubbed her Twitter account of all references to Hillary Clinton. It ended up not being true but such is the minefield of risk that traders face going into the election. Oh...did I mention there is a Fed meeting tomorrow (no change expected) and a key US employment report on Friday? Minefields ahead. Travel at your own risk.

As far as US economic data, Construction spending was a disappointment (-0.4% vs +0.5% estimate), but ISM manufacturing (51.9 vs 51.7) and Markit PMI (53.4 vs 53.2 est) were better than expectations. US car sales for October also came in better than expectations. So rock, paper, scissors, the stock market decline, and political uncertainty, trumped (no pun intended) the other/better US data.

The hardest hit currency pair today was the CHF. The USDCHF was down 1.37% on the day as traders flocked to the relative safety of the Swiss franc. Not only did the CHF appreciate 1.37% vs the USD, it also gained 1.4% against the GBP, 1.23% against the CAD and 0.7% against the EUR. Although the gain against the EUR was less than other currencies, the move in the EURCHF sent the price below the 1.0800 level which many thought was a floor for that pair (it is currently trading at 1.0782. The 1.0800 will be eyed in new day trading. Stay below keeps the bears more in control. As for the USDCHF, it fell below the 200 and 100 day MAs at 0.97689 and 0.9780 respectively (currently at 0.9753). Stay below those levels to keep the pressure on.

The EURUSD moved above the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart early in the London session at 1.0975. That MA stalled the pair on Friday and again on Monday, but the break above today - coupled with the stock market concerns, helped turn the sellers into buyers. Later the price moved above a topside trend line and 38.2% retracement at 1.1047. The high stalled at 1.1068. In the new trading day, close support at 1.1038-47 area (the 1.1038 was the swing high from Draghi's press conference on October 20).

The USDJPY was another trending currency pair (lower) today. Trend line support was busted at 104.82. Then the 200 hour MA at 104.49 and the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart were all broken without much "fight back" at 104.49 and 104.17 respectively. The low extended down to 103.78 before a late day rally - helped by a recovering stock market - took the price back toward the 104.17 level (100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart). That level is close resistance into the new trading day. Above that the 104.34-37 should keep a lid on the rallies.

The AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD had up and down flows. The AUDUSD continued the rally from the Asian Pacific session into the London morning session (better China data, and nothing from RBA to push lower), but gave back some of those gains on "risk off " activity (or so it seemed). The USDCAD fell below the 100 hour MA but found support buyers near the 200 hour MA (currently at 1.3355). Oil provided little in the way of direction.