Forex news for New York trade on July 16, 2019:
- US June advance retail sales +0.4% vs +0.2% expected
- Fed's Powell: Fed to act as appropriate amid increased uncertainties
- Kaplan: Rate cut could be warranted based on bond market signals but should be limited
- Fed's Evans says 25 bps or 50 bps cut in July is a question of strategy
- Boris Johnson could send MPs home for two weeks in October - report
- Pompeo: Iran has said it is prepared to negotiate about missile program
- Iran says missiles are 'absolutely and under no condition' negotiable
- BOE's Cunliffe: Has not picked up a strong sense economy contracting
- Fed's Kaplan says he believes Fed funds rate will stabilize after one cut
- Germany's Von Der Leyen confirmed as EU Commission President
- WTO partly rules against US in trade dispute with China
- New Zealand GDT price index +2.7%
- NAHB June US housing market index 65 vs 64 expected
- US May business inventories +0.3% vs +0.3% expected
- US June industrial production 0.0% vs +0.1% expected
There was truly something for everyone in Tuesday's session. The data was upbeat with the retail sales control group beating expectations once again and the strong consumer was something several Fed officials noted.
However the US consumer isn't where the Fed or the market is watching. Instead it was Trump's comments on trade that caused a stir as he took a slightly-more-negative view on China. That's probably just a shift in his mood but the market is stuck trading his whims.
However his tone was surprisingly positive on Iran and that sank oil prices 2.6%. They had been lower until Iran's denial that its missile program was on the table. USD/CAD was dragged around by crude with the pair rising to 1.3081 from as low as 1.3025 early in New York trade.
The dollar was strong in general and I would submit that Kaplan may have been more important that Powell, who rehashed last week's comments. Kaplan framed a cut as 'tactical' and not the start of a cycle. Even Evans, who continued to chat about a 50 bps cut framed such a move as a one-and-done (at least for this calendar year).
Cable broke down below the flash crash lows on hard Brexit talk, an Irish border blowup and hints that Boris might actually close parliament around the time of the Oct 31 exit. Cable fell 110 pips on the day to 1.2407 and closed just above the lows.
