Forex new for North American trading on November 18, 2021
- S&P and NASDAQ close at a record level
- CBO est. that effects of Title VI enacting the Build Back Better would result in a net increase in deficit
- Fed's Evans says he is not expecting a rate hike until 2023, admits he may be wrong
- Fed's Daly: a low unemployment rate does not mean everyone who wants a job can get one
- Bitcoin moves down to its lowest level since October 28
- Crude oil futures settle at $79.01
- Fed's Evans: Expects good momentum in 2022
- London/European traders exiting for the day. Major indices close lower
- Kansas City Fed manufacturing index for November 17 versus the 25 in October
- Sen Manchin (D): Is not decided whether to vote for the Build Back Better bill
- New York Fed president Williams: We are seeing a broader based increases inflation
- Conference board leading index for September 0.9% versus 0.8% estimate
- US November Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index 39 versus 24 point to estimate
- US initial jobless claims 268K vs 260K estimate
- The NZD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest a NA trader enter for the day
The S&P and Nasdaq indices back making all time high closes for the respective indices. The S&P closed above it's previous high close of 4701.69 (closed at 4706.64). The Nasdaq closed above it's previous high close 15982.36 (closed today at 15993.70). The Dow was not so lucky as it fell -60.10 points or -0.17% to 25870.95. In the European equity markets today, they showed declines across the board. Below are the closes, highs and lows and % changes, etc for the major indices in the US and Europe.
In the forex, the NZD opened the NY session as the strongest of the major currencies on the back of higher QoQ inflation data (2.96% vs 2.27% last quarter). The RBNZ meets next Wednesday (Tuesday night in the US) with expectations of another hike in rates at that time to 0.75% (from 0.50%). The weakest currency was the JPY followed by the USD as investors shunned the safety of those currencies. In the US, rates were also lower on the day which helped to weaken the greenback a bit.
Below are the rankings of the strongest to weakest of the major currencies.
- The EURUSD moved higher and is closing near it's session highs at 1.13727. The price moved above the 100 hour moving average at 1.1362 and also the 50% midpoint of the weeks trading range at the same level . Stay above is more bullish in the new trading day
- The GBPUSD moved lower in the early North American session but found support buyers right at key support at the 200 hour moving average near 1.34607. Holding that level gave the buyers the go-ahead to push back toward the swing area near 1.3503 to 1.3509. Move above that and the new trading day, and traders will target the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the October 21 high at 1.35363
- The USDJPY broke above the 100 hour moving average at 114.26 early in the US session and reached a peak near 114.48, but subsequently gave up those gains and is closing just below the moving average levelat 114.23.
- The USDCHF is closing near it's lows and below its 100 hour moving average at 0.92606. Stay below that level in the new trading day keeps the bears/sellers happy.
- The USDCAD saw the price move higher in the North American session moving from a low of 1.2594 to 1.2646. However the price then retraced the entire move back down to 1.2594 (that is the low reached in the finally hour of trading. AN up and down session for the USDCAD.
In other markets:
- Spot gold is trading down $8.53 or -0.46% at $1858.65. The precious metal decline despite the weaker dollar
- Spot silver is trading down $0.29 or -1.16% at $24.77
- WTI crude oil futures are trading up $0.62 at $78.83
- Bitcoin is trading down around $2800 and $57,577. The digital currency traded at the lowest level since October 28 and moved further away from the $60000 level.
In the US debt market, Yields are ending the session in the reed with the 30 year yield down 2.4 basis points to 1.973%. The two year is only down -0.2 basis points
Fundamentally, initial jobless claims and continuing claims came in its lowest level since the pandemic began. Leading indicators were touched better than expectations. Feds Williams and Fed's Evans not stop there bias with slightly more hawkish undertones.
Looking toward tomorrow's North American session, there are no US economic releases:
- Canada Retail sales will be released at 8:30 AM ET/1330 GMT. The expectations are for the client -1.6% after a 2.1% gain last month
- Canada's NHPI is expected to rise by 0.5% versus 0.4% last month
Fed speak has the following Fed officials scheduled:
- Fed's Waller is scheduled to speak at 10:45 AM ET
- Feds Clarida is expected speak at 12:15 PM
ECB's Lagarde is expected speak at 1 PM ET.
