Forex news for NY trading on November 2, 2016.

  • S&P down for the 7th straight day
  • Latest Quinnipiac swing state poll has Clinton
  • US crude oil futures settle at $45.34 per barrel
  • A slightly hawkish tilt: Fed to hike in December according to CIBC
  • Fed gives no clues and that could leave the market in a pickle over Dec
  • Full statement from the November 2016 FOMC
  • Dollar little changed after the FOMC
  • US FOMC leaves rates unchanged - Rosengren withdraws dissent
  • Another state poll. This one from Marquette University in Wisconsin
  • Here's how the November FOMC will play out?
  • EURCHF swans back up to1.0800
  • Buba's Dombret wants the ECB to separate monetary policy and supervision mandates
  • Trump and Clinton tied 2-2 in CNN ORC polls
  • A reminder about margin hikes by your brokers this week
  • It's official. October US total car sales 18.02M vs 17.76M in September
  • EIA weekly US oil inventories 14420k vs 2000k exp
  • Gold trades above $1300. S&P little changed in early trading.
  • Trump gains in Florida poll
  • October 2016 US ISM New York business conditions index 49.2 vs 49.6 prior
  • Why has the dollar suddenly become the sick dog of FX?
  • October 2016 US ADP employment 147k vs 165k exp


  • S&P -0.65%
  • Crude oil -2.61% to $45.46
  • 10 year note yield 1.7990%, -2.6BP
  • Spot gold $1297.36 +0.73%

The FOMC decision to keep rates unchanged was pretty much baked in the cake. Clearly the Fed could not do anything before such a contentious election. The Fed did keep the doors open for anything that might happen between now and the December meeting. Between now and then will be the US employment report on Friday, the US election on Tuesday, followed by whatever time it takes to work through the implications of that outcome. The markets fear is a Trump victory - simply because of the unknown. Uncharted waters can be difficult to maneuver and he represents uncharted waters. So we will see. Then next month there will be another employment report of course.

The dollar remained under pressure today. The S&P has now been down for 7 consecutive days. Gold rose by 0.73%. Bond yields fell on a flight to quality.

However, drilling into the dollars move, the greenbacks move was largely impacted by the move in the NZDUSD. That currency pair was the biggest mover - at 1.42%. The next largest mover was a 0.68% decline vs the JPY (more about that later). So was the USD the catalyst for that move? No. The NZDUSD moved higher on the back of stronger employment and inflation expectations IN New Zealand. That helped to move that pair up from 0.7181 to 0.7309 at the peak. So blame the dollar selling for that currency pair on the NZD side.

How did the other commodity pairs do? Did they rise vs the greenback. Nope. In fact both the USDCAD and the AUDUSD were unchanged on the day. So that too shows the impact of the NZ data on it's pairs price action today.

How about some of the other currency pairs?

The USDJPY continued to march lower. This pair is more influenced by the stock market and election anxiety it seems. However, the pair did seem to find some support buying. The 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart came in today at 102.987 and the low stalled at the nice round value of 103.00 - just above that level. Good support. Is the low in place? The rebound of the day's range was only about 38.2%. So you can't declare victory just yet. In fact, looking at the 5 minute chart below, the pair is trading below the 200 bar MA but above the 100 bar MA. So there is a battle, but the fighting goes on into the new trading day.

The EURUSD is another pair that has benefited from dollar selling of late. For this pair, it too has been a beneficiary election and stock market anxiety. However, like the USDJPY, it got close to key resistance. For it, the 100 day MA come in at 1.1132 and although the high stall about 10 pips short of that level (at 1.1122), the market seemed aware of that levels importance and was willing to sell ahead of it. The correction came down to the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at the 1.1082 level and that will be close support into the new trading day. Support at 1.1082. Resistance at 1.1132.

The GBPUSD is higher but had a choppy trading day. The BOE along with the Inflation report with press conference is more on traders minds it seems. In addition, the Brexit legal challenge on whether Prime Minister May has legal power to trigger Article 50 will be announced. So it is all ahead for that pair.

We are one day closer to the the BOE/UK stuff tomorrow. We are one day closer to the US employment report on Friday (Canada will also report on Friday). We are one day closer to the US election on Tuesday. All of which has the potential to move the markets. So keep your ear to the pavement at Forexlive and be prepared.