Forex news for NY trading on June 29, 2018
- Stocks slide lower into the close but end positive on the day. Major indices close the week lower.
- CFTC Commitments of Traders: Shorts in the loonie increase.
- Trump: Considering cutting corporate tax rate to 20% (from 21%)
- Crude oil futures settle at $74.15. Big move higher this week.
- Bitcoin lower on day but finds support just ahead of 2018 low
- Baker Hughes total rig count 1047 vs 1052 last week
- Canada says tariffs on US goods to take effect on July 1
- EU stocks end the week with gains on the day
- NY Fed Nowcast 2Q GDP estimate dips to 2.8% from 2.9% last week
- Atlanta Fed cuts GDP forecast to 3.8% from 4.5%
- Q2 Bank of Canada business outlook survey future sales +6% vs +16% prior
- June final U Mich consumer sentiment 98.2 vs 99.2 expected
- France's Macron: Europe was firm and united against US attack on trade
- June Chicago PMI 64.1 vs 60.0 expected
- Saudi output will be "surprisingly high" in June
- If Trump's real plan is to quit the WTO, then some things start to make sense
- ECB's Draghi said to warn eurozone leaders of lower confidence
- Canada May industrial product price +1.0% vs +0.9% m/m expected
- April Canada GDP +0.1% vs 0.0% m/m expected
- US May core PCE 0.2% vs. 0.2% expected.
- The EUR is the strongest. The JPY is the weakest as NA traders enter for the day.
In other markets:
- Spot gold is trading up $4.90 or 0.30% at $1253.14. Last week, the price closed at $1270.56 For the month, the price is down from $1298
- WTI crude oil futures are trading up $.87 or 1.18% at $74.32. The end of May close was at $67.04. The gain for the month was 10.8%.
- Bitcoin on Coinbase is trading down $141 at $5905. For a technical look at bitcoin into the weekend CLICK HERE. The price closed at the end of May at $7538.28. That equals a 21% decline for the month
In the US stock market today:
- S&P index rose 0.08%. For the month, the gain was 0.48%
- NASDAQ index rose 0.09%. For the month the gain was 0.92%
- Dow rose 0.23%. For the month, the index fell -0.59%
In the US debt market today:
- 2 year, 2.528%, up 1.8 basis points. The end of May rate was 2.427%. For the month, the rate rose 10.1 bps
- 5 year 2.736%, up 2.2 basis points. The end of May rate was 2.696%. For the month, the yield rose 4 bps
- 10 year 2.858%, up 2.2 basis points. The end of May rate was 2.858%. The change for the month was 0.0 bps.
- 30 year 2.990%, up 2.49 basis points. The end of May rate was at 3.025%. The yield fell by -3.5 bps this month
The 2-10 spread flattened by 10.1 bps on the month.
The week, month and quarter is over.
For the day, the EUR was the strongest. The JPY was the weakest. The USD fell against all the majors with the exception of the JPY.
The story behind the dollar weakness was mostly told before NY traders arrived. The EU came to an agreement on migration and that saved the EU as we know it. An exaggeration, i know, but it did help the EURUSD run higher.
In the NY session, the EURUSD pair was hanging below the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.1666, when ECBs Draghi warned of lower confidence. That sent the EURUSD down but only to the 100 hour MA at 1.1629 where support buyers entered. Around the London fixing, buy orders helped to push the pair above the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour at 1.1666, and the price stayed above that level for the rest of the day. The pair is closing near the highs for the day at 1.1690 and just below the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour at 1.1692 (level to get above next week maybe?). The pairs reached a bottom for the week at 1.1526 on Thursday. The high for the week stalled at 1.1719 on Tuesday. PS the price high on Tuesday also stalled just under the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart - increasing that MAs importance technically. Be aware.
For the GBPUSD, it was ready for a corrective move higher and piggybacked on the EURUSDs move to the upside. Similarly, it too got a London fixing push as London traders exited for the weekend. That took the price through the 100 hour MA at 1.3172 and up to a swing area in the 1.3203-16 area. The high reached 1.3213 near the close for the day. The high for the week did reach closer to 1.3300 on Tuesday (so the pair is lower), but the GBPUSD did stage a nice comeback rally off the Thursday low (and against a trend line at 1.3049-see chart below). PS Getting above the topside trend line helped to propel the pair higher as well today.
For the USDJPY this week. it bottomed against on Monday and Tuesday (triple bottom) and then spent the rest of the week taking a big step up, followed by a little less than big step down. Followed by a big step up and less than big step down. Hey...it moved higher alright - taking out the June high at 110.897 in the last hours of the month. The high was extended a whooping 4 pips to 110.937 and then closed around around 110.70 as stocks gave up gains in the week. PS did you know the low price for the month was on the first trading day of the month at 108.716? I wonders how many times that happens?. Like the week, in between the low and the high was lots of ups and downs (like a bad relationship). PSS, the pair did move above a trend line on the daily at 110.69 and closed right around that line (not shown - but see post here).
The NZD was the weakest currency this week. The NZDUSD bottomed today near a lower trend line connecting lows going back to June 5th. That trend was tested yesterday and bounced a little. Today the test - at a lower level - led to a bigger bounce higher. Nevertheless, the pair remains near lower levels and traded to the lowest level going back to May 2016 this week. In the process, the price moved below the 50% retracement of the longer term move from the August 2015 low to the July 2017 high at 0.68123. With the price at 0.6770, the bias will be more bearish into the new week as long as the price is able to stay below. PS the 100 hour MA is around that level at 0.6809 (and moving lower). It too will be a level that traders will be eyeing in the new week.
Below are the rankings of the strongest and weakest for the month. The USD was the strongest this month as the Fed tightened and the rest of the world wishes they could but they have things like Brexit or trade concerns, or lower confidences or just plain old slower growth. The weakest this month is the NZD. It ran away with the weakest currency of the month.
