Forex news for NY trading on April 5, 2018.
- US stocks continue the run higher
- Non farm payroll preview: By the numbers
- When your trading suffers, think of how Bill Ackman feels
- Video: Why the Canadian dollar should be higher right now
- US crude oil futures settle at $63.54
- Friday's US jobs report overview and market reaction scenarios
- Fed's Bostic: Fed should pause once hits neutral rate
- USDCHF breaks and stays above the key 50% and 100 day MA
- The forex/equity/bond markets are up and down and so is gold
- Bitcoin trades in a narrow trading range/little changed
- London traders send GBPUSD to lows before leaving for the day.
- European stocks end with solid gains
- Fed's Bostic: Confident of US economy in 2018
- WH Peter Navorro talks trade policy on CNBC
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for 1Q growth 2.3% vs prior 2.8%
- Canadian PM Trudeau: NAFTA talks are moving forward significantly. USDCAD falls.
- More from Kudlow: US GDP could reach 5% at least for a short period
- Kudlow says he thinks US-China trade deal will happen "over a period of time"
- March Canada Int'l merchandise trade -2.69B vs. -2.10B expected
- US February trade balance USD -57.6bln vs -56.8bln exp
- US initial jobless claims 242K vs. 225K expected
- The USD is the strongest while the AUD is the weakest
A snapshot of the other markets at the end of the day are showing:
- Gold is down -$7.50 at $1325.88 on the rise in the US dollar. It remains in the 3 month trading range and looking for the next push.
- S&P 500 is ending the day up 22 points or %. The Nasdaq rose and the Dow gained
- WTI crude flat is trading up $0.28 or 0.46% at $63.66
- US yields are higher on increased economic confidence. 10 year is up 3.3 basis points at 2.836%. The 30 year is up 4 basis points to 3.075%
- Bitcoin is trading down -$71 at $6761. It traded in a narrow $365 trading range. Be on the lookout for a bigger day in the new trading day (see post here)
Looking at the winners and loser in the forex market, the snapshot is showing the CAD overtook the USD in the last few hours of trading and is the strongest, while the JPY overtook the GBP to take over as the weakest currency of the day.
The day before the US employment report can be a tough one for traders. The market tends to be focused on the what might be, but today there was some more positive coming out of the trade negotiations.
Canada PM Trudeau got things going with a comment that there was "significant progress on NAFTA". A short time later, White House economic adviser Kudlow added some additional positive comments about China/US trade and even suggested a 5% US growth rate (say what, Larry?!?).
Those comments certainly helped the CAD. It also gave the USD a boost.
Just yesterday, the markets were spooked about a Chinese and US trade war. Now...the tariffs are just a ploy to get China to the negotiation table for some serious talks, and NAFTA is all but signed. PS. If you have not watched Adam talk about NAFTA (and other topics) do so now by CLICKING HERE).
From an economic perspective today, the data was not suggestive of 5% growth. The weekly initial jobless claims spiked to 242K from 218K the prior week. The US trade deficit was larger than expected at-57.6B (vs -56.8B). If you ask Trump, Navarro, Wilbur Ross, that is bad, bad news, but if you ask other economist, imports and exports were higher suggesting good domestic and global growth. The China deficit did narrow to $29.26B from $35.95 billlon.
Nevertheless, the data (and data yesterday) led a decline in the Atlanta Fed GDP estimate to 2.3% from 2.8%, but do we really care? Not really. US employment is tomorrow. For a preview of the expectations, CLICK HERE.
