Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: The dollar is the strongest but gains limited
Forex news for NY trading on July 8, 2019
- US stocks opened down on day and remained negative for the entire day
- CFTC Commitment of Traders: Shorts in currencies mostly trimmed vs the USD
- US consumer credit for May $17.086B vs $17B estimate
- Crude oil futures settle at $57.66
- US will continue to exert pressure on Iran until it abandons its nuclear weapons program
- Iranian Revolutionary guard: The world knows Iran is not pursuing a nuclear weapon
- France's top diplomatic advisor to travel to Iran on Tuesday in effort to de-escalate tensions
- Iran has enriched uranium beyond security limit set by nuclear deal
- As London/European traders look toward the exit, the USD is the strongest.
- European major stock indices are ending the session mixed
- US VP Pence: Iran should not confuse American restraint with lack of American resolve
- US 1 year consumer inflation expectations increase 0.2% to 2.7% in June
- Conference Board Employment trends index falls to 109.51 vs 111.22 last month
- France's FM Le Maire: Euro nations must take advantage of low rates
- Italy's Tria. Italy doing what is needed to stabalize it's debt
- The NZD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest
In other markets:
- Spot gold is down -$5.00 or -0.36% at $1394.25. ALthough higher earlier in the day (high reached $1408.15), the rising dollar sent the contract lower as the day progresed. Traders will likely look for the $1400 level to put a lid on the pair now.
- WTI crude oil is down -$0.04 or -0.07% at $57.47
- Bitcoin on Coinbase is trading up $700 at $12210. The digital currency broke above the $12000 level in the NY afternoon session and scooted up to new session highs. The high for the day reached $12034.17. The low today reached $11328.01.
The dollar - after being more mixed at the start of the day - moved higher and is ending the session as the strongest currency of the day. The CHF is ending as the weakest. The USDCHF is closing near session highs, up 0.29% on the day. As the biggest mover, that is not that great a % move. Chalk the lack of more meaningful activity to the hangover from the employment day on Friday.
The good news for the dollars bulls is they survived the modest correction lower in the USD and are ending near high levels vs. the major currencies. So although the ranges were light (vs the 22 day average trading ranges - below red line in the lower chart below), you can expect some apprehension. PS Chair Powell testifies on Wednesday (and Thursday) on Capitol Hill. That is what the market is really waiting for to get the post jobs report policy clues. Can he or will he signal a rate cut? Will the Senators and Representatives jump on the Pres. Trump bandwagon in bashing the Fed chair for not easing with "low" inflation?
Some technical levels for the new trading day to eye:
- EURUSD: The EURUSD is closing lower but could not extend much below the Friday low at 1.12068 (the low reached 1.12066 and bounced modestly. We are closing at around 1.12133. A move below the Friday/Monday lows and the 1.1200 opens the door for a test of the June 18 swing lows at 1.11808 and the March low at 1.11744.The low for the year comes in at 1.11064. If the 1.1200 level can not be broken, the 1.1242-46, and then the "line in the sand" 100 day MA at 1.12559 will be key upside targets that will determine the bias for the week.
- USDJPY: The June high for the USDJPY reached to 108.796. The high for today reached 108.801. We trade at 108.702. So there is a double top which may or may not remain in the new trading day. If broken to the topside, look for the 109.02-17 area as the next target. Staying belowand traders will eye 108.52 (last Monday's high) followed by the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 108.376 as levels that if held, would keep the buyers a touch more in control.
- USDCAD: The USDCAD moved above the 100 horu MA early in the NY session at 1.3077 currently and raced to the 200 hour MA at 1.30936. The first test of breaking the 200 hour MA failed, but a retest of the 100 hour MA, kept buyers more in control for now at least. Near the end of the day,the high extended to 1.3102, but has backed off back toward the 200 hour MA into the new day (at 1.30936). If the 200 hour MA and 100 hour MA are broken (at 1.3077), look for buyers to turn to sellers. If the levels hold, the buyers remain in control.