Latest data released by INSEE - 30 October 2020

  • Prior (Q2) -13.8%; revised to -13.7%
  • GDP -4.3% vs -7.3% y/y expected
  • Prior -18.9%

The recovery from July through to September was stronger than estimated and marks the biggest quarterly growth in French economic output on record. That said, this is well telegraphed after the move away from lockdown measures in Q2.

Looking forward though, things are less optimistic as France is seeing another revamped lockdown until the end of November. That is likely to drag economic output back into negative territory once again in Q4.