We've a couple of previews posted already:
- Preview: Why the August non-farm payrolls report is likely to surprise
- Preview from Goldman Sachs on non-farm payrolls
And there will more to come.
This from UBS:
We project continued strength in payrolls in August,
- a consequent decline in the unemployment rate,
- no change in the weak path of average hourly earnings,
- and a flat workweek.
- Nonfarm payrolls probably rose 190k in August, slowing from 209k in July and 231k in June but still somewhat above their 180k 12-month average. We also forecast private payrolls up 190k.
Risks to the payrolls estimate chiefly come from manufacturing and from hospitality employment.
- In non-auto manufacturing, employment had surged in July-and while we expect a pickup in output, the gain may have been overdone. In auto manufacturing, payrolls were little changed in July despite sharp output cuts.
- Hospitality payrolls have also been surging-reflecting restaurant hiring-and while some acceleration is corroborated by our equity-analyst colleagues, the July rise (+53k versus a 30k per month year-to-date average) may similarly have been exaggerated.
All in all, though, our forecasts would be consistent with considerable momentum. Hurricane Harvey won't affect the August figures (the payrolls survey ended too early). And we doubt that they will have much impact on September