The high for the year in the GBPUSD is the 1.6299. The high close for the year is 1.62546. On Friday, the price of the GBPUSD moved to 1.62534 (just below the high close) and found some profit taking sellers. Currently, the price is back above the 1.6254 level for the 2nd time in the NY session. Stay above, and the shorts may have some more worrying to do. By the way, a close above the level today would be the highest close since August 30, 2011.
On the topside, the next target would look toward the 1.6299 high for the year. Above that the longer term targets would be toward 1.6405 and 1.6452 (see the chart below).
Remember, the GBPUSD has a 1069 pip low to high trading range for 2012. This is the most narrow for a calendar year going back to at least 1980 (1999 had a range of 1082 – see chart below). So to extend the price above the high for the year – and with it the range for the year – is certainly not out of the question. I don’t like to bet – or count on – records being broken.
For today, I will now be looking for the price to stay above the 1.6254. If done, the bulls are in firm control. Move below and I would look for the next support to come in at 1.6240 (midpoint of the days range so far). The close from Friday at the 1.6255 level would be another clue that the profit takers may be in. Until these levels are breached (starting with that 1.6254 level) , the bulls remain in control.
